Social media analysis: Hamon may win the French Socialist Party presidential primary

Main Underhood scores of the candidates

It will be a race between Benoît Hamon and Vincent Peillon in the presidential primary in France this Sunday.

Bad news for Valls

According to social media reputation data analysed by Underhood, earlier favourite Manuel Valls will not be elected as a Socialist candidate to compete against candidates from other parties.

Based on social media engagement metrics calculated January 20th, the order will be

1. Benoît Hamon (Underhood score 8,0)
2. Vincent Peillon (Underhood score 7,5)
3. Arnaud Montebourg (Underhood score 7,1)
4. Manuel Valls (Underhood score 6,9)
5. Sylvia Pinel (Underhood score 6,0)

Runoff election will be between Hamon and Peillon

A second round between Montebourg and Valls had long been billed as the likeliest scenario. But based on Underhood’s metrics the candidates competing against each other in a runoff election on 29 January will be Hamon and Peillon. The scores of the candidates will be updated daily on Underhood before the next round.

Emojis used by Hamon’s audience on social media

At Underhood, we measure audience engagement and other reputation-related metrics daily.

Research has shown that genuine dialog with the community can create a better reputation and lead to success. Among other data we measure the average shares, likes, and comments a candidate gets.

EDIT/UPDATE: Election day update: Peillon and Montebourg are really close to each other. Hard to say who will be challenging Hamon in the 2nd round.

January 22th: Hamon’s and Peillons popularity going down in the election day analysis

Underhood is a service that measures the reputation of companies, brands and organizations on the Internet automatically. At Underhood, everyone sees each other’s reputation ratings, and companies can develop their own communications on the basis of the reports. Underhood works closely with the academic community.

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