How we became the hottest startup in Finland — and then Saara Aalto lost the X Factor UK final
Two weeks ago, we were simply just another startup company from icy Finland. We had just launched our online reputation metrics tool, Underhood. We were gaining customers slowly but steadily. So, everything was looking cool and calm.
One Sunday morning, we became the hottest startup in Finland
Then, one Sunday morning, we became the hottest startup in Finland. All that we needed was a Facebook message from my friend:
“So, who’s gonna win the X Factor UK?”
Ten minutes after my friend asked the question, I posted a predicted winning order of the five remaining singing contestants, to my personal Facebook wall, based on scores created by our Underhood’s algorithms. At that point in time, I thought nothing special of the list.
I had no idea that a simple post to social media would start a media storm.
Exactly twenty-six minutes later, the Finnish IT magazine, Tivi, published an article based on the list I had posted. In few hours, other media channels also pounced on our predictions. From here, things got crazy.
Soon, everybody was talking about Underhood’s predictions — all because of the X Factor UK.
Things got crazy
This year, the X Factor UK was special for us because a fellow Finn was competing amongst the British singers. The whole nation was going nuts about our diva goddess, Saara Aalto.
It was unbelievable. What was this? Weren’t we supposed to be a serious reputation metrics company? We never imagined we would become an oracle for talent shows, this was definitely not on our pipeline.
Evening came, along with the X Factor results show. Guess what? We nailed the order. Underhood knew even the sing-off pair.
Suddenly all my friends were excited about Underhood. There was even an endless thread on my Facebook wall, commenting about what Underhood’s new slogan could be. A new slogan? C’mon! Did these people not have lives to live?
You need to be brave, take risks and learn from any mistakes and shame
Well, what can you do if you are a startup? You need to go all in, push the throttle and see where the new drive can take you. That is what lean development is all about. You are never ready; you need to be brave, take risks and learn from any mistakes and shame.
And of course: after the surprise of our first success, I became too confident. It did not help that everything we forecasted gained media attention. All the articles made me believe we are infallible.
I attempted to predict the order of Talent Finland — even if I could not get enough data from Underhood. Talent Finland was won by a young man making fart noises with his hands. Yes. Fart noises. I never fathomed that he could win, he didn’t even have a Facebook page. I failed, and the papers wrote about it.
We also attempted to use our crystal ball to predict the results of the Austrian presidential elections as well as the referendum in Italy that took place a week ago.
Austria’s president, we got correct. There were two clear candidates, a hardcore right winger and a Green party politician. We knew that Alexander Van der Bellen, 72 year old Green candidate, would win. This prediction was fairly straight-forward to measure from the online buzz and reactions even though the polls had no idea who would become Austria’s new head of state.
However, we failed with the Italian votes when we said yes-side would win. To be honest, we didn’t know what to measure nor what the competing sides actually stood for. Quite shameful, I must admit.
However, we put the failure in the past and tried not to worry about it. So, we kept pushing with the X Factor, all the way to last Sunday’s Super Final.
We knew Saara Aalto and Matt Terry would continue to the final battle on Sunday. The press were becoming more and more excited, as well as the people around us.
Everything seemed possible
“If you create an application for stock brokers, you’ll become the richest, most bribed men and women in Finland,” a friend of mine texted me on Sunday. Yes, everything seemed possible.
Everyone was beginning to believe in nowcasting, our method of prediction derived from social data from the Internet. Our user metrics skyrocketed, especially after we created a special live prediction page for the X Factor. We kept receiving attention and partnership inquiries from the leading Finnish media companies.
Then, the Final came. To begin, Saara Aalto was leading in our live prediction. However, just after the votes closed, Matt Terry creeped up closely and it became an almost head-to-head battle. At this point, we knew he would win. There was no doubt about it. We were measuring the global social media buzz around the competitors, not the buzz in the UK where the voting was possible. The crazy Finnish Saara fans were messing with our metrics.
It would’ve been a great PR-stunt if Saara had won. But this was good too.
Yesterday morning, I woke up and wondered if I would have a pile of mail mocking us. However, I shouldn’t have worried. Everyone was very positive.
It seems as though everyone wants us to succeed. Even if we don’t get our predictions right every time, there has been very little envy, bad talk, or disrespect towards our mission or intentions.
People seem to be understanding what we do. In times when polls cannot be trusted and media is filled with propaganda and other dirty tricks, new ways to analyse people’s moods and opinions are being called for.
Nowcasting is not easy, but people want us to help them understand the present, and the future. Even the media wants us to be successful, which is weird.
Now, it is time to take a deep breath, sit back and take a long thorough look at the data we’ve gathered during these crazy two weeks. We will also ask for help from the science community to accurately develop our nowcasting algorithms.
We really believe we are onto something here. If this kind of media storm — tens of media articles and hundreds of social media posts — can rise from a talent show, in a place like Finland with only 5.5 million inhabitants, then there is a hurricane waiting for us when we make this global.
We took the chance, and it paid off.
Underhood is a service that measures the reputation of companies, brands and organizations on the Internet automatically. At Underhood, everyone sees each other’s reputation ratings, and can develop their own communications on the basis of the reports. Underhood works closely with the academic community.
Check your own reputation: https://underhood.co
